The Chinese curse of living in interesting
times is upon us, but what the Chinese cannot understand is why we have wished
this curse onto ourselves. And, even more shockingly, why are we so happy about
it?
From the point of view of Beijing, Pakistan’s
stability is of the utmost importance: not because the Chinese love us (this
phrase is best left to fill official press releases) but because we happen to
have a geography that fits into their plan for the next century, which they
believe will have them on top of the hierarchy of nations. Trade routes are
their lifeline. So are energy corridors. We happen to provide both.
The shortest and best connectivity with the
rest of the world which also allows them to develop the whole of their country
by harnessing its vast landmass for more production – that’s what we are to the
Chinese.
For us, China is a friend in deed because we
are always in need – of strategic wherewithal like nuclear cooperation; of
vital diplomatic support to offset the Goliath in the east, India, and of
investment from outside sources most of which, other than the Chinese, have
become exceedingly risk-weary and therefore averse to putting their pretty
penny in our land.
It is not a free lunch for us: modern-day
China is too practical-minded to offer anything free. We are bordering on
becoming China’s backyard where it would land its goods and elbow out ours. We
are also getting recruited in a power game of a global scale that is likely to
cut the world into Eastern and Western blocks precariously balanced on an
uncertain nuclear threshold.
It is dangerous to be tied to the knee of a
behemoth. Every move can shatter the bones. But we have few options except to
cling on. China is a friendly giant whose embrace we feel comfortable in.
Logically, the mutuality of these interests
should keep things stable between us and the Chinese. And this is how it is as
well. Things are stable. Nobody wants to lose Chinese goodwill, their advice
and of course their time-tested friendship and trust. From Maulana Fazlur
Rehman to Ayaz Lateef Palejo, from Imran Khan to Nawaz Sharif and from retired
generals to the serving ones, there is a stated consensus that China is holier
than all external cows and must be treated as such too.
But logic also demands that we ought to
demonstrate through our actions that we understand the Chinese sensitivities
and, more important, realise that their global agenda presupposes a certain
rationality on our part in our actions. Of late this presupposed rationality
has gone up in smoke, leaving the Chinese on the verge of tearing their hair
out over the bewildering speed at which we are journeying down into chaos,
singing all the way.
From the Chinese point of view, there has not
been a moment’s prudent silence in Pakistan ever since the CPEC has come to the
fore. An engineered and provincialised internal controversy on how the western
route is missing from the whole scheme was followed by endless political
turmoil in the country threatening to unleash disorder that could affect the
whole timetable of the CPEC.
The last dharna by Imran Khan caused the CPEC
signing to be postponed (the Chinese have long-term memory and events are
meticulously filed in durable shelves and never forgotten) and it was not lost
on Beijing how Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was taking the lead in protesting the alleged
bias in the CPEC and threatening to not let this scheme take off in that part
of Pakistan if its complaints weren’t addressed.
It is a coincidence (Chinese do not believe
in coincidences) that KP Chief Minister Pervaiz Khattak is still on a
self-declared war-path with the centre on this vital corridor and his leader is
a few days away from laying a siege on the capital city demanding the prime
minister’s resignation and effectively dissolving the government.
One does not have to meet anyone to know
(this qualification has importance since the Cyril story, and now all
journalists must insist that they get their stories through intuition) how
frustrated the Chinese are over these matters that hang in the air like a bad
smell refusing to go away. The Chinese have taken the unusual step of
explaining the CPEC to the sceptics via Twitter (just imagine!) where their
diplomats take public questions and unravel the so-called mystery of which
route is being built first and which is being left out.
They have met all significant leaders in
Pakistan, pleading sanity and advising rationality for the larger interest of
both the countries. They have complained (in a nice Chinese way that involves
sobriety and careful formulations) that Pakistan ought to get its priorities
straight and desist from taking a path that leads nowhere except to the
derailment of the mutual understanding on the CPEC. However, to no avail.
The Chinese have had far little success in
drilling their message home on this count as compared to the earlier problem
when a virtual power struggle broke out within the decision-making echelons
over who would control the execution of the CPEC schemes. In that case they
were able to shoot trouble by meeting all ‘stakeholders’ (post the Dawn-story
episode it is now imperative for the sake of national interest that
stakeholders must never be named) and cautioning that these squabbles are quite
petty.
But now the Chinese aren’t making any
headway. Their efforts have been fruitless to point to the gains of the CPEC as
a way to suggest that the present bout of political warfare is totally
counter-productive. Every day the spiral of political hate goes a circle higher
and the possibility of events spinning out of control inches closer to becoming
reality.
Knowing the Chinese propensity to analyse all
situations in expanded frameworks, it would not be wrong to assume that Beijing
sees the events in Pakistan as part of a struggle that involves global
interests. (Beijing must have also noticed foreign-funded non-governmental
organisations running open campaigns against the CPEC and motivating public
sentiment against the CPEC.)
The Chinese can be forgiven for assuming that
Pakistan’s power elite are actually divided into three distinct groups: the
Washington-London Group; the Middle-Eastern Group; the Chinese Group. And while
everyone pays homage to Beijing, the reality of the situation is that external
lobbies are working their agendas through their chosen ones.
These groups have their interests aligned in
different world capitals. Their children, their families, their businesses,
their future jobs – everything is wired to world centres. (A profile of whose
family interests lie outside Pakistan would be a fascinating study except that
no one will be able to publish it here.)
Which lobby will prevail? Only time will
tell. Which group will survive this battle of giant interests? A few months
wait will bring us answers. But one thing is for sure: this battle will be
bloody and bruising, not because the groups in Pakistan have so much fire in
their bellies but because the global stakes of what happens in Pakistan are
very high.
We need to remember that in the 18th and 19th centuries the British fought 30 wars to
keep their sea route from Africa to India safe. The First World War was a trade
routes and colonies war. Since then wars are conducted through proxies and
agents. In modern times, the US has interfered in almost 80 elections around
the world to secure its own interests. Washington has fought two dozen wars (on
other soils) and has caused displacement of millions from their homes to ensure
that it retains its strategic advantages, which inevitably involve keeping oil
supplies and markets safe.
Global interests will keep the times in
Pakistan interesting. There will not be a moment of stability in this land
because of its geography. With this in mind, see it from the Chinese point of
view: they may conclude that the uproar in Pakistan is not about Panama: it is
about China.